Application of Fuzzy C-Means and Borda in Clustering Crime–Prone Areas and Predicting Crime Rates Using Long Short Term Memory in Northern Aceh Regency

Abstract

North Aceh is a district with diverse geographical conditions, ranging from vast lowland areas in the north stretching from west to east, to mountainous areas in the south. The average altitude in North Aceh is 125 meters. The district covers an area of 2,694.66 km² with a population of 614,640 people in 2022. The issue of crime in North Aceh District has caused significant discomfort among the community. According to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) of Aceh Province, the number of criminal cases increased from 6,651 cases in 2022 to 10,137 cases in 2023. Using the Fuzzy C-Means clustering method, the data was grouped into three clusters: cluster 1 represents safe areas, cluster 2 represents moderately vulnerable areas, and cluster 3 represents vulnerable areas. For ranking using the Borda method, the Dewantara Police Sector ranked first for the physical aspect, while the Muara Batu Police Sector ranked first for the item aspect. As for predictions using the LSTM model, almost all subdistricts achieved MAPE values below 20%, indicating that the LSTM model is quite effective in predicting crime-prone areas. For example, Baktiya District recorded a MAPE value of 15.85% for the physical aspect, while the best result was achieved by Simpang Keramat District for the item aspect with a MAPE value of 0.00%. However, in Syamtalira Bayu District, the item aspect reached a MAPE value of 20.07%. Although the MAPE value for the item aspect in Syamtalira Bayu is relatively high, it is still considered acceptable as it remains below 50%.